(Reuters) – Not many presidents could survive
three multi-billion dollar government oil corruption scandals and a wave of
cold-blooded killings and kidnappings of civilians by Islamist militants still
holding hundreds of schoolgirls after six months.
Nigeria’s president Goodluck Jonathan has not
only survived, he will seek reelection in February stronger than ever, after
five years in a job no one expected him to get.
Jonathan’s support base within the ruling party
is now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often fractious People’s Democratic
Party (PDP), while the main opposition APC coalition is split between two
contestants for the presidency.
The government announced a ceasefire with the
Islamist Boko Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead of talks in neighboring Chad to
secure the release of more than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April
in an abduction that shocked the world.
If the talks are successful it would help the
president’s image. But nothing has come of it yet and violence has
since surged, with dozens more children kidnapped.
Jonathan has defended his overstretched
military’s efforts against a Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands.
In the case of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said any rescue
attempt would endanger their lives.
Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges,
his government also has been beset by corruption allegations.
A parliamentary report detailed a $ 6.8 billion
fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude
sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central
banker has reported that between $ 10 and billion $ 20 billion had been
diverted by the state oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.
The government pledged to investigate the first
two cases and denied the third.
Last month, South Africa froze two payments from the Jonathan administration totaling $ 15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.
Last month, South Africa froze two payments from the Jonathan administration totaling $ 15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.
Yet it is a testament to Nigeria’s complex mix
of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralized oil wealth
in Africa’s top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and
attract a high level of support.
WEAKER
OPPOSITION
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an
accidental president, taking over in 2009 after President Umaru Yar’adua, a
Muslim from the north, died from illness.
When Jonathan was elected to his own term in
2011, many in the north resented his decision to run, believing he had torn up
an unwritten rule that power should rotate between mainly Muslim north and
mainly Christian south every two terms.
Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who
lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar are
vying for the opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the past month,
focusing on security and graft.
Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control
Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two “principle factors for Jonathan’s
robust position in spite of the scandals and failings which have rocked his
government”.
“Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in
determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria,” means an incumbent gets a huge
advantage, and second, “the opposition lacks steadfast unity”.
That marks a big change from less than a year
ago. In December it was the PDP that was in crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers
defected to the APC that month, demolishing the PDP’s lower house majority.
Rotimi Amaechi, powerful governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also
defected.
The same month, Jonathan’s mentor and PDP
Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrote a scathing letter saying it
would be “fatally morally flawed” for Jonathan to seek re-election in 2015
because of corruption under his rule. Jonathan called the intervention
“unjustifiable and indecorous”.
Ten months on and the APC has failed to
capitalize. It has not agreed on a presidential candidate and several
disillusioned APC figures have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid
nature of Nigerian party politics.
They include popular two-term ex-governor of
Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and former anti-corruption chief
Nuhu Ribadu, denying the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although Buhari
still has strong anti-corruption credentials.
“MODEST
EXPECTATIONS”
In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party.
In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party.
“The opposition is cannibalizing itself. Its top
elites are vying against one another. That’s a glide path for President
Jonathan,” said Eurasia Group’s Philippe de Pontet.
“Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6
months ago … we’d be in a different world.”
On Dec 2, the dynamic could shift when the party
picks its candidate. Buhari earned a reputation for cracking down on corruption
during his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians agree he did not use
the post to enrich himself, but it is not clear whether he would win votes from
APC supporters in the south.
The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac
Matthew illustrates Jonathan’s staying power.
Driven by the plight of the schoolgirls to
leave a court case he was defending to join protesters demanding more action to
rescue them, he says Jonathan bears ultimate responsibility since “leaders are
supposed to protect their people”.
“I’m still probably going to vote for him,” he
said, citing Jonathan’s concentration on power reform and some works Matthew
said had greatly improved the road network.
“The opposition has no credible candidate to
stand against him. Not Atiku (Abubakar) and not Buhari.”
The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world’s most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.
The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world’s most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.
Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram
insurgency, which only affects the remote northeast apart from occasional bomb
attacks in the capital or other cities, as just one problem in their large,
diverse country.
“Expectations in the electorate are fairly
modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite … years of civilian rule,”
said Antony Goldman, head of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting.
“You don’t need to be popular or successful in
conventional terms to win an election in Nigeria,” he said, although he added
that no president had managed to stay popular after four years in office, and
the APC had yet to present a clear alternative.
EBOLA NOT A
FACTOR SO FAR
One issue that has not yet played an important
role is Ebola, rampant in some other West African states. A mixture of luck and
impressively decisive action has meant Africa’s most populous country was able
to avoid a potentially devastating epidemic after a Liberian brought it to the
megacity of Lagos, but the virus could still come back to plague Nigeria, with
unpredictable political consequences.
Jonathan’s assumed decision to run has widened a
divide between elites in Nigeria’s south and north because of a feeling in the
north that it is still their “turn” to rule.
That makes violence likely, especially if the
poll is close. In 2011, more than 800 were killed and 65,000 displaced in three
days of violence after Jonathan beat Buhari in the poll.
If Buhari, now 71, gets the ticket but loses the
election again, his supporters may have less reason to end the mayhem so
quickly if they sense he has missed his last chance.
No comments:
Post a Comment